Detroit at Kansas City

I think that the oddsmakers are still in love with Zack Greinke as they continue to over-value him. Greinke got out of the gate so fast and furious last year that it has left a lasting impression, on both the public and the oddsmakers. Greinke allowed just 7 runs through his first 10 starts a year ago, but has not come remotely close to that since. He is pitching to a 3.81 ERA this season, but since that 10 start, lights-out performance a year ago, the Royals are just 19-31 in his last 50 starts, hardly deserving of a bad team as a heavy chalk. The Royals offense has topped the 4 run mark in just two of their last 10. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 9-2 with Bonderman on the hill after scoring 5+ in their last game. Detroit gets this one.