img HORSE

CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #11 (THE KENTUCKY OAKS(G1))

May 3, 2019
img6:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Bet this race at Diamond SportsTop pick: #3 (LADY APPLE) (12-1) - She's improved tremendously since returning from a six month layoff in early February. Speed/stalker has won all three starts at Oaklawn since then, and last out she upset the G3 Fantasy Stakes there at ods of 9-1 April 12. She' won on a sloppy surface before and her style fits well today as there's potentially plenty of speed signed on for her to track. A daughter of Curlin', she has a good shot at a big price.

2nd pick: #4 (Bellafina) (2-1) - The morning line favorite and a deserving one, she's won six-of-eight starts, with three of those coming in rich G1 stakes. Stalker is three-for-three this year and enters off a very easy win in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) April 6. She's one for one on a wet surface and is an obvious win candidate.

3rd pick: #14 (Restless Rider) (15-1) - Longshot has gone 7-3-4-0 so far and is 4-2-2-0 locally. A G1 stakes winner at Keeneland Oct. 5, she finished second here in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) Nov. 2. In her seasonal bow April 6, she missed by a 'neck' to today's rival 'Out for a Spin' going 8.5 furlongs in Keeneland's Ashland (G1). Working fast since, I'd like her a lot more if not for the tough outside post.

4th pick: #6 (Positive Spirit) (30-1) - Another longshot, she has ability and she ships from Aqueduct where she ran second at this distance April 6 in the G2 Gazelle Stakes. She broke her maiden here Nov. 8, is working fast, and her stalking style could lead to a board finish at a huge price.

5th pick: #2 (Chocolate Kisses) (20-1) - A stone closer, she won a G3 at Oaklawn Park March 9, then was never involved at Keeneland in the Ashland (G1) April 6. The pace picture today should help her late running style out and she must be left in the mix.

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