Washington at San Diego

Livan Hernandez is red hot right now. He's 5-3 on the road for the season and over his last three starts, he's a perfect 3-0 witha 3.15 ERA. Against the Padres, he's got a 3.29 career ERA. Compare that to Peavy's 1-2 record with 5.00 ERA. Peavy doesn't deserve to be laying this much wood. He's 5-11 on the season including 3-6 at home. He's 1-6 in his last 10 starts with a 7.13 July ERA! So why is San Diego favored by so much here? Well, they have owned the Nationals having won 15 of the last 18 in the series. But this game looks different to me. Hernadez is 12-7 as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Peavy is 2-7 as a favorite of -150 or more this season. Washington is not a good team you say? Well, consider that San Diego is just 1-7 this season at home vs. bad teams (46% or worse record). Throw in that San Diego is averaging 2.7 runs per game over their last seven games and we have a live dog in Washington here.