Washington at Phoenix

The Phoenix Mercury will likely be the top seed in the West, and rightfully so. They got off to a very quick start at 12-4 and have been on cruise control since. The wins came easily, as 10 of the first 12 were by seven points or more. The wins haven't come so easy in the last 10 games, as the 12-4 start has been reduced to 6-4 in the last 10. Their 13-4 ATS start has been reduced to 6-4 as well. They have only faced a pointspread higher than this once all season, so while they aren't playing as well as they were earlier in the season, that start puts them up against a big number and the value turns to Washington. The Mystics have seen their biggest underdog role to be from 5.5 to 7.5, and they have faced games in this range seven times this season, and they have a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in the seven games. Too many points, so I'm going with Washington here.