I had a big play on Memphis last out and nothing has changed my mind about playing them big again. Vanderbilt is coming off an emotionally impossible home win vs Wichita State. That usually spells trouble in the next game. Memphis, missing the NCAA BIG DANCE by 1 point, could have packed in the season, but instead Calipari has this group focused and motivated. They have 2 blowouts to their credit, and honestly have played their best basketball of the season in their last 6 games. Consider the fact they are averaging 81.7 ppg over the last 6. That is amazing because they only reached 80+ 6 other times previously all season! This team is really peaking at the right time, and they will march to the GARDEN PARTY! Memphis is 10-0 when they hit 80, and 18-3 when they hit 70. (15-3 ATS). Compare this to Vandy being 3-9 ATS when they give up 67+. Not only that Vandy needed a 9 for 15 Mario Moore performance beyond the arc, just to allow that miracle finish to happen. If he was even a 40% 6-15, it is a double digit loss. Vandy has been a horrible road team all season. Yes they have 20 wins, but believe it or not 17 came at home, and during the regular season they were 2-10 on the road, with count them 6 double digit losses. They also lost two other games by 8 and 9 points each. Vandy is a very average 43% FG shooting team on the road, while Memphis is among the best in the nation defending the hoop @ home 37%. Vandy is defending at 47% FGA on the road, and a pathetic 41% from beyond the arc. The rebounding is Vandy -3 on the road to Memphis +4 at home. Memphis has now won by double digits in their last 8 wins overall, and this game looks like a very strong play. Memphis has the statistical edge, the home court edge, and their last 6 games have been their best 6 games all season, rolling for the lucky 7 tonight. Four stars on Memphis minus the five.
Did you know that Memphis has gone UNDER in all 6 home games in which their opponent averaged 45% or better shooting from the field this season? Not only did they post that 0-6 (Over/Under) record, the average combined score of those games was a very low 119-points! The Vegas Oddsmakers opened the Total of this Vandy at Memphis battle at 136-points, which is 17-points higher than the average score in the above Key Angle! With almost 20-points to spare, I look for this game to go way under the posted total tonight. Two stars on the Under here.