Toronto at Washington

Toronto has dropped 9 of 10 while Washington, 10 of 15. Something's gotta break here and I like the Maple Leafs on the road. Belfour is struggling but he is 7-1-2 in his last ten games vs. Washington. Washington's power play defense is atrocious (22.9% on the season and 45.8% over their last five games) and Toronto does well against such opponents (22-5 over last ten years vs. teams allowing 19%+ in second half of the season). They are also 14-1 in the second half of the season vs. teams that have been outscored by opponents by 0.65+ goals per game. Toronto's offense can score - it's their defense that is terrible. But, Washington's offense, scoring just 2 goals per game over their last five, won't be able to take advantage. And, Toronto gets to go against a defense that is allowing 3.8 goals per game on the season. Losing home underdogs off a road loss are just 24-82 (33%) over the last 5 seasons during the second half of the season. Three stars on the Leafs here.