2017 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 13, 2018
Tennessee at New England
Saturday 01/13 08:15 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Game Total OVER 48 -107 (risk 1.5 to return 2.9) RESULT: WIN
Tennessee's defense played better at home than on the road, allowing 40 points at Pittsburgh and 57 at Houston. Tennessee will attack a suspect New England D-line with RB Derrick Henry and mobile QB Marcus Mariota. The Titans are 94-67 OVER the total after playing their last game on the road. They face a balanced Patriots offense that was tops in the NFL in yards, second in points (28.6 points per game). QB Tom Brady (32 TDs, eight INTs) has had two weeks to rest and he has so many weapons to go to in this spread offense. The Patriots have great balance with RBs Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James White and Mike Gillislee, while the Titans don't have a safety or linebacker to match up with TE Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots are 66-32 OVER the total on fieldturf, plus 7-0-1 OVER in their last eight Divisional Playoffs games. New England's defense up front has been hit by injuries all season, which precipitated the signing of 39-year-old LB James Harrison last month. The Patriots finished #29 in yards allowed, and #20 against the run. The Patriots allowed 4.7 yards per rush (#31), face a strong Tennessee ground attack, and New England is 34-19 OVER the total when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt. Brady has seen this type of defense often when Tennessee DC Dick LeBeau was with the Steelers. As the Titans load up to stop the run and try to blitz Brady, look for the Patriots to counter by spreading the field with three and four receivers so he can find a quick-strike against favorable single coverage. This shapes up as an offensive show and the Patriots are 39-23 OVER at home after scoring 25+ points in two straight games. Take this one to finish OVER.