2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 09, 2012
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Sunday 12/09 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Tennessee PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
3 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: loss
The Indianapolis Colts have turned a disastrous season a year ago into one in which they’re a bona fide playoffs contender at 8-4, if they can finish the job over the last four weeks. Andrew Luck has given them a passing game. He's having an amazing year and appears to be establishing himself already as an elite NFL quarerback..... Record scratch. While this is what you hear from the stuffed suits, the reality may surprise you. Blaine Gabbert. Kevin Kolb. Tennessee's Jake Locker. What do these three quarterbacks have in common? They aren't very good. Yes, that's true, but what else? They are all looking down on Andrew Luck in the quarterback rating standings. That's right, the better quarterback statistically in this game is not named Luck. Luck will be a great quarterback in this league, but he's still a rookie on a bad team. Luck has passed for over 3,500 yards, but because the Colts struggle to run the ball, Luck is on schedule to approach the 700-pass mark this season. He has a pedestrian passer rating in the mid-70s, and he has just one more touchdown than interceptions on the season. The Colts may be 8-4, but they have been out-scored by 41 points on the season. They have been very fortunate to win every close game, and six of their eight wins have been in either overtime or by 4 points or less. The fact is that if they were giving 5 points in every game they would be 3-9. Jake Locker is going to be able to move the chains, as the Colts have mustered just six sacks in their last four games. Chris Johnson got 99 yards in the first game, and the Colts have surrendered 100+ on the ground in each of their last three. The Titans are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after scoring 14 or fewer in their previous game. This is the most points Indy has had to lay in two years. It's too large. Take the underdog here. Also take the UNDER. Division games are always more intense battles. Teneessee's non-division games this season have averaged 56 points. Their division games have averaged just 40 per game. Non-division Colts games have averaged 51 points while their division games are averaging just 36. So between the two teams, non-division games have averaged 53.5 points while division contests have averaged 38 points - that's a huge 15.5 points per game difference! And this isn't just a recent phenomenon. Tennessee is 14-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 20 inside the division overall while the Colts have gone 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 in the division. The last 16 meetings between these teams has seen the UNDER prevail in 13 of them, and in Indy the UNDER is 10-1 in the last 11 when these teams square off. Under head coach Mike Munchak, the Titans are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Take Tennessee here and play the UNDER.