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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 19, 2007


Tennessee at Denver

Monday 11/19 08:30 PM Eastern

5 units on Tennessee +1 (-106) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: LOSS

It isn't too often that we get this bullish on one side of a game, especially a Monday Night game. But once in a while an opportunity presents itself that we love. Tonight is that night. There are a lot of dynamics that go into a game: some statistical, some intangible, some trends, and some based on public perception. Many of these line up tonight. Denver is coming off a big upset win over KC (we were on them last week). That win played into the perception of many - that Denver still is a playoff caliber team. At the beginning of the year, many had them winning the division. The great hopes quickly faded as they started 2-3, capped off by a pounding vs. San Diego 41-3. No one wanted any part of them the following week on Monday Night vs. the Steelers. But we did, and they came away with the outright win. The public opinion began to sway, the Broncos are back! The next week they gave it back with a loss to Green Bay in a game where their offense looked horrible. Then they got exposed again in a 44-7 no contest against the Lions. The Broncos once again had fallen to the prey of the public dismissal last week when they went into Kansas City, a tough venue for any team, and soundly lay it on the Chiefs. So now the pendulum has swung and the public again believes in the Broncos! They are back, right? Hardly! We backed Denver twice this season (vs. Pitt and last week at KC) but that was based on the situation, not the team. We look at Denver and see a team that could easily be 1-8 instead of 4-5. Their two early wins against poor teams (Buffalo and Oakland) came literally as time expired on field goals. They needed OT to dismiss of the lowly Raiders and Buffalo was a much worse team than they are now when Denver played them. Denver beat Pittsburgh as time expired, too. Their only quality win, in our opinion was vs. Kansas City. Their five losses were by 37, 6, 38, 9 and 18 points, or an average of 21.6 ppg. That's the largest margin of loss for any NFL team! The line is also interesting. Denver opened as a 3-point favorite and the Titans drew a lot of action. It dropped to 1.5 and 2 at virtually every outlet. If the odds-makers thought Denver was the right side, they would have left it at 3 and juiced it. But they didn't, which tells us they want money drifting back to Denver, because it is the wrong side. While Denver is now a public team again, Tennessee is the opposite. Last year, the Titans were ranked near or at the bottom of the league offensively and defensively, but somehow kept winning week after week. That "somehow" was the addition of Vince Young. They didn't get respect last season as they reeld off ATS win after ATS win. Their stats didn't say "great team" but all they did was win. They did the same to start this season starting 3-0 ATS. The public finally took notice and started backing them. But, since then, they haven't performed, winning just two games ATS in the last six. So, a team the public didn't really WANT to back, has now given them excuse to get off the train. Back to Vince Young. The public doesn't like a QB that doesn't put up impressive numbers. But, QB ratings aren't the reason Young was able to do what he has done. Despite Tennessee's recent struggles, this team is now 13-5 in the last 18 games he has started for the Titans! Since week four of last season, they have suffered eight losses. Here are the record of those eight opponents coming into the game first, and second, their final or current record. This year: Jacksonville (6-3, 7-3), Tampa Bay (4-3, 6-4 and Young left with injury), Indy (1-0, 8-2). Last year: New England (11-4, 12-4), Baltimore (6-2, 13-3), Jacksonville (4-3, 8-8), Indy (4-0, 12-4), Dallas (1-1, 9-7). There is one common thread here: all these teams were .500 or better. Their combined record coming into the game was 37-16 (70%)! Their combined records overall is 75-35 (68%)! Do you see this Denver team in that company? Do you see any Titans loss with Young as starter to a team like Denver? The fact is, they have chewed up these type of teams. They are 7-0 SU vs. sub-.500 teams over this same period, and that includes 5-0 on the road. The offense is not in a better place than it was last season. Last year they were the 5th best running team and this year they are third. Last year they were 30th passing, this year 31. The big improvement has come on defense, where they went from dead last to #3 overall. There is no weakness to exploit on this defense as they are #3 vs. the run and #7 vs. the pass. What they do offensively is stuff the ball down your throat running the ball. This is Denver's vulnerability, as they rank #30 against the run. Vince Young does not have impressive numbers, but he is the intangible on this team that wins football games. Tennessee is a very difficult team to beat running the ball, and if you try to pass, they have the lowest QB rating against them in the league, at 65.5. Denver on the other hand allows a QB rating of 90.9, which is 4th worst in the league. That means Denver makes the opposing QB's look like a Pro-Bowler, and Tennessee makes them look like a back-up. Tennessee is 7-1 as a road dog with Young at QB, while Denver is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 giving points and 1-10 ATS before back-to-back road games. Denver vs. winning teams this season has been out-scored by 15 ppg. Tennessee has been outscoring losing teams by 10.3 ppg. The trends, the stats, the intangibles, the betting line, are all lined up for Tennessee to put one in the win column, and it is our NFL Monday Night Game of the Year. PLEASE remember that while we love this game, any game can lose. NEVER risk more than 5% of your entire bankroll on any single game. Good luck to you.



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