Tampa Bay at Toronto

The Rays have been almost impossible to beat at home, but very suspect on the road where they are nine games below .500. It is also no secret that they are more vulnerable to lefthand pitching as well. The Rays are 13 games over .500 against righthanders but under .500 against southpaws. Not surprisingly, that bad road record worsens when they are posted as a favorite, as they are just 9-23 in their last 32 as a road favorite. That means they are winning just 28% of the time as the so-called better team. Finally, they are also just 1-5 in Shield's last six starts as a favorite and 1-5 in his last six starts vs. the Blue Jays. These are not the type of numbers befitting of a team playing as a favorite on the road, and I'm going with a live home dog here.