2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 09, 2007

09

Tampa Bay at Seattle

Sunday 09/09 04:15 PM Eastern

5 units on Tampa Bay +7 (-115) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: LOSS

The team the betting public likes the most this week? Over 75% are betting on Seattle. We'll "Buc" that trend and take the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting the points here. It's no big wonder why everyone is jumping on the Seahawks. After just missing out on a Super Bowl win in 2005, they dropped off last season thanks in a large part to injuries. Now they are healthy and the prevailing wisdom is that they will cruise to their fourth consecutive NFC West title. But, is the picture really that rosy? Shaun Alexander averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per carry last season and he is now 30 (the death age for most NFL running backs). And, Matt Hasselbeck is coming off one of his worst years as a starter. He threw 18 interceptions last season in just 12 games - more than he has ever thrown in any full season. Also, this offensive line has question marks. Pro Bowl tackle Walter Jones played just one series during the preseason thanks to a shoulder injury and next to him are two new starters. Tampa Bay was again horrible in 2006. Heck, they haven't been good since winning the Super Bowl in 2002. In 2006 though, it hit rock bottom as they posted a 4-12 mark. Their offense was as bad as it gets. But, this is a new year! Jeff Garcia takes over for a bevy of ineffective Tampa Bay quarterbacks. Garcia is a proven winner - in San Francisco and Philadelphia. He is high energy and very positive which is what a losing team needs. He also fits nicely into Gruden's offense. He gives the Bucs hope. In Philly, Garcia completed 62% of his passes for 1300 yards in six starts and made a lot of people in Philadelphia forget about Donovan McNabb for a while. That's no small feat. They also made improvements on the defensive side of the ball brining in Cato June from Indianapolis, Jerimiah Trotter from Philly, as well as Ryan Sims and Kevin Carter and drafting Gaines Adams. This should be a good Bucs defense this year. Seattle has lost 11 of their last 37 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and they dropped three games here last year, so don't just hand this one to the Seahawks. The betting public is remembering the great 2005 Seahawks and the terrible 2006 Buccaneers. They are remembering Seattle's 23-7 road win in the season finale last year. But, this is a new year, with a new QB for Tampa. And, the Bucs remember that humiliating defeat too. Tampa is VERY motivated to start off this year well. Seattle, meanwhile, may just be looking past this game vs. a 4-12 non-division opponent. They have a big division game vs. Arizona coming up in week two. Take the Bucs to keep this one close.


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