2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 23, 2007
Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Sunday 12/23 04:05 PM Eastern
5 units on San Francisco +7 (-115) (risk 5 to return 5) RESULT: WIN
If you look at this game statistically, then the conclusion might be that it is a slam dunk for the Bucs. Statistics, however don't always win football games in the NFL. Take a look at the betting line on this game. This one opened at 7, and with close to 90% of all bets coming in on Tampa Bay, the line has been creeping downward all week. It dropped to 6.5, and is now down to 6. Ask yourself this - Why were the Bengals coming here last week and favored by 10 while this line is 6? Are the Bengals a better team than Tampa Bay? No. The Bucs have locked up their division, and can't improve themselves, as they will be a 3rd or 4th seed. Want an eye-popping stat. Tampa Bay in their franchise history, is 4-25 SU in regular-season games played on the West coast! If you think that was mostly achieved in the early days of this franchise when they simply were not winning games anywhere, that is not true. They have not won a regular season game on the West coast since 1999, and that also represents the last time they have even covered a game out West. In the last 17 games they have played out here, they are 2-15 SU and have been out-scored by 26.8 to 14.6. They are 0-7 SU against San Francisco on the road since 1983. So in a nutshell, we have a team with nothing to play for, that hasn't won in 25 years in the Bay, and is 4-25 SU on the West coast. They are facing a team that was a double digit home underdog to a horrible Cincinnati team. And the Niners are now a dog of 4 points less, facing a playoff team off a monster win?!? The public is biting, jumping all over the Bucs. But still, the line is dropping off of key numbers? We will not back a team that has four wins in their franchise history on the West coast, and none here. We see value on the other side. In fact, we wouldnot be surprised to see lowly San Francisco play good and win this game, so we will grab the points.