Tampa Bay at New York

This is a true "Yankee line." If you pick your spots, there are great times to fade New York when the public can't resist, and this is one of them. We took the value on Tampa Bay yesterday to the bank. We see another, probably better opportunity here. The Yankees, fresh in all the bettors minds, just swept the powerful Red Sox. But a closer look shows this team is not clicking right now. Their line-up has produced just 19 runs in their last six games, good for only 3.2 runs per game. They will start another hyped rookie in Ian Kennedy. This kid was pitching in A-ball this year, and was rushed through the system. The Yankees have been forced to use a rookie pitcher 42 times already this season to start a game, and the results have been poor. The Yankees are 2-22 in games started by rookies, good for -10.6 units to their backers. They are -235 here? Way overpriced! Tampa Bay comes in as the hottest team in the entire AL. They have now won four straight and seven out of eight. The D-Ray offense has been on fire. They have scored 74 runs in their last eight games (over 9 per game). And the pitching staff has picked it up as well, as the Rays have allowed just 33 runs in the eight games. Edwin Jackson has come of age. Jackson was 0-8 with an 8.20 ERA in mid-June, but has since gone 4-4 with a 3.64 ERA covering 77 innings, allowing less hits than innings pitched. The Yankees have allowed an average of 5.5 runs a game when a rookie starts. They are facing a pitcher who has turned the corner, and a team that has been explosively hot. The Yankees are cold offensively too and they are likely still facing a bit of a Red Sox hangover. Tons of value in this big dog.