2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 16, 2012
Tampa Bay at New York
Sunday 09/16 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Tampa Bay PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: PUSH
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers certainly looked like a renewed team last week under the guidance of first-year head coach Greg Schiano. Tampa Bay played defense last week much the same as they did in the years when this team was contending for Super Bowls, allowing a franchise low 10 yards on the ground to the Carolina Panthers. In his days at Rutgers, Schiano was a preacher of ball security and discipline. That message seems to have gotten through as the Bucs played flawlessly last week. They did not turn the ball over a single time in their opener and committed just four penalties. It led me to a very revealing stat. Teams that are underdogs of +7 or more, and don't turn the ball over are 192-59-4 ATS in the NFL since 1990. If these big dogs turn the ball over one time they are 303-154-15 ATS, and even with two turnovers they are 261-133-11 ATS. So if Schiano's influence truly has changed the culture here and the Bucs hold on to the ball on Sunday, the Giants are in for a battle. New York has problems with injuries in their secondary. They gave up two long TDs to Dallas in their opener, along with 307 yards and a 76% completion rate. And, with a 10-day layoff as a big favorite, could they be a bit flat? Those are all dangerous numbers for a big favorite. Despite seven out of ten bets coming in on the Giants here, this line has moved 2 full points the other direction. What does that tell us? The big (sharp) bets are coming in on Tampa Bay. Play on the Bucs.