Tampa Bay at Dallas

As we stated last week, Dallas was the better team vs. Indianapolis. It was confirmed as they beat the undefeated Colts. While just 6-4 in record, we believe Dallas is one of the league's elite teams right now (top 5 and maybe top 3). With Romo at the helm, they are 3-1 and could easily be 4-0. In those four games, they are averaging 390 yards of offense and 26 points per game. Tampa Bay is averaging just 13.2 points per game - better than just one NFL team (Oakland). They are worse than Oakland in yards per play and could arguably be called the league's worst offense. Their defense is ranked 20th while Dallas' is sixth. The win over Indianpolis gave the Cowboys a shot of confidence that could propel them to an amazing late season run and into the playoffs on a roll. Tampa Bay's offensive woes have come against defenses much worse than this. Against the only two top-ten defenses they have faced (Baltimore and Carolina), they have averaged 11.3 points per game. Tampa Bay, in the Gruden era, is just 9-18 ATS on the road after September. The Cowboys under Parcells are 9-0 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 17 or less per game. The risk here of course, is that Dallas lets down. But on national TV, sitting at 6-4 and in a battle for their division, we don't expect that to happen.