Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The Thrashers are a decent home team and they are playing great right now, especially on defense. They have won seven of their last nine games, allowing  2.6 goals per game over that stretch. Over their last five games they have allowed just one opponent to score more than 2 goals. Tampa Bay is playing very good right now too but against lighter competition as they were favored in all but one of those games. Atlanta in contrast has won five games as an underdog in their stretch. Atlanta is 6-1 this season vs. poor defensive teams like Tampa Bay (those allowing 2.9+ goals per game). They are also 12-3 following a game in which they allowed under 2 goals since last season. We like Atlanta here to end Tampa Bay's somewhat false run.