2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 18, 2007

18

St. Louis at San Francisco

Sunday 11/18 04:15 PM Eastern

4 units on San Francisco +3.5 (-115) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

Ok wait a minute here. St. Louis was just 0-8 and the talk was whether they'd win a game all season. They go out and get a win and suddenly they are favored on the road? Wow! Aren't they still 1-8? Perceptions change in an instant in the NFL and obviously such is the case with the Rams. Remember also, at the beginning of the year, everyone had San Fransisco as a possible playoff team. Things really do change fast. St. Louis has gotten healthier, and scoring 37 in their win over New Orleans seems impressive. But, we don't think the Rams all of a sudden have it figured out. New Orleans has some serious warts and St. Louis nearly gave that game back after building a huge lead. San Fransisco beat a healthy Rams team early in the year on the road. Mike Nolan is 4-1 in his career vs. the Rams, and although the Niners don't put much pressure on the QB, they have been able to get to Bulger. The Niners have recorded just 14 sacks on the season, but six came against Bulger in their win at St. Louis. The Rams will likely be without Issac Bruce, who caught eight balls for 145 yards agaisnt the Niners in the first meeting. This isn't exactly a Hall of Fame offense the Niners are facing. St. Louis has allowed 30ppg over their last six games and expect the Niners to move the ball much better against them than what we have seen in recent weeks. We look for the Niners to be the hungrier team this week, just like St. Louis was last week. Home teams off a road loss faicng and opponent off an upset win are 41-18 ATS the past five seasons. San Francisco looked bad vs. Seattle last week and the Rams upset a public-favorite team (New Orleans). The public is now overreacting to one game and we'll take advantage of that and back the lowly Niners. They are, after all, getting points at home vs. a 1-8 team.


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