2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 11, 2015
St. Louis at Green Bay
Sunday 10/11 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Green Bay -8.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 2.86) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total OVER 45.5 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: loss
You can't trust the erratic Rams under Jeff Fisher. They get up for divisional games, stunning the Cardinals on the road last week, but now have to head to Lambeau Field for their second straight tough road contest. You need a good pass defense to hang with Green Bay and the Rams don't. In fact, they're in the middle of the pack at defending the pass, allowing 235.3 yards per game. Despite the upset last week, St. Louis is on a 2-5 spread run as well as 26-53-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record. They are also 9-2 OVER the total in October. They run into the best team in the NFC, led by the best QB in the game in Aaron Rodgers (11 TDs, 0 picks). Since the start of last season Rodgers has 50 TDs to just five picks! Green Bay's defense is third in the NFL allowing 17.8 points per game while the offense is #10 in yards, third in rushing and sixth in points (28.3 ppg). Green Bay is on a 5-0 ATS run as well as 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 home games. The Pack is also 8-3 OVER the total at home and 11-5 OVER on natural grass. When these teams meet the favorite is 8-0 against the spread and the OVER is 6-2, and this shapes up as a one-sided rout for the home team. Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack are 46-30 ATS at home and 67-40 ATS as a favorite (including 21-9 at home laying 7.5 to 14 points).They are also 89-68 to the OVER under McCarthy inclluding 22-8 OVER as a home favorite in this range of 7.5 to 14 points. Back the Pack and take the OVER.