St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton

Tourney time means great defense and both of these teams know how to play it. St. Bonnies played last night and held St. Joe's to 49 points and 25% shooting, just 3-of-16 from long range. The problem for the Bonnies is offense as they have averaged juist 65 pointson the road this season and 64.4 in conference games. Dayton is well rested while St. Bonny is not. The Flyers have averaged 68.8 per game in conference games this season, winning by nearly 8 points per game. Yes, the Bonnie's defense is good, but Dayton is 16-7 ATS since last season vs. great defenses (teams like St. Bonaventure that hold opponents to 42% or less from the field). Dayton is also 9-2 ATS the past two seasons in tournament games. St. Bonaventure is 5-0 UNDER the total after a victory and 5-0 UNDER after a spread win. St. Bonaventure is also on a 4-1 run UNDER the total, plus 5-2 UNDER at neutral sites. They will have to slow the pace down against a rested and dynamite Dayton defense that has allowed 55, 59 and 55 points the last three games. Dayton is 5-2 UNDER the total at neutral site games and this total is too high. Lay the points on Dayton and take the UNDER.