2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 06, 2013
Seattle at Washington
Sunday 01/06 04:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Seattle (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
A pair of the hottest teams in the NFL will meet in the opening round of the NFC Playoffs - both featuring rookie QBs that have turned around their respective franchises. There are plenty of similarities in the offenses of these teams. They each have a mobile rookie quarterback that makes them highly difficult to defend, while at the same time they each have a running back that is having a monster season. While the similarities compare about equally on offense, they end when you take a look at the defenses. Seattle has allowed just 15.3 points per game (best in the NFL) while the Redskins have allowed 24.3 ppg. Therein lies the difference in this game. The Seahawks simply have proven to be able to get the needed stops, while the Skins have disappointed as often as they have succeeded on defense. There is also one key factor that says that the Seahawks’ defense has the capability to shut down RG3. The Seahawks went to Carolina this year and held a similar style QB in Cam Newton to 12-for-29 and 121 yards, while he ran the ball seven times for 42 yards. The Panthers tallied just 12 points. The defense certainly showed that they could handle a similar offense with a similar QB. The other factor is whether RG3 is ready to be RG3 again after his knee injury. He has not shown the same desire to run and was noticeably not the same on his return. I think that these factors will weigh heavily in Seattle's favor. Beyond the defensive differences, overall these teams aren't as equal as they may appear. Sure, there is a one-win difference in the standings. But that's misleading. Based on pythagorean analyis, Seattle is closer to a 12 or 13 win team (12.4 pyth wins). Washington is closer to a 9-win team. Seattle is 9-1 ATS this season vs. winning teams and 4-1 vs. playoff teams. They beat Green Bay, New England and San Francisco. They also showed they can win on the road, going to Chicago and winning outright as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington is just 2-2 this season vs. playoff teams. There's some concern of course considering this game is on the road for Seattle. But, I think they are just a much better team and they should win this game.