Seattle at Texas

The last time Kason Gabbard was on the mound vs. the Mariners, Richie Sexson went haywire and charged him for a bench-clearing brawl. We don't expect those fireworks today with Sexons serving a 5-game suspension, but we do expect a Rangers win. Gabbard has a 1.85 ERA in five appearances. He's a perfect 9-0 the past three seasons at home. Felix Hernandez goes for Seattle. After a very nice start, he has lost three in a row, allowing 14 runs in 18 innings. The Mariners are just 6-13 on the road, scoring 4.0 runs per game. Over their last seven games, their average is just 3.6 per game. And, they are 2-7 vs. LHP this season. Texas gets 5.3 per game at home and they have been crunching the ball of late, averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last seven. Losing home teams at +125 to -125 are 85-39 (69%) over the past five seasons when hosting a team at .380 or worse. Seattle is 8-21 dating back to last season coming off a 1 run loss. They are 7-13 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The M's have no business being favored here and we think there's a ton of value on the home team as a result.