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2011 Season WNBA Basketball Past Picks

July 05, 2011


Seattle at Indiana

Tuesday 07/05 07:05 PM Eastern

3 units on Seattle +5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

3 units on Game Total UNDER 145 -110 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

The Seattle Storm are 5-3 despite shooting the long ball at historically poor rates for this club. Here is a look at the 3-point shooting numbers for the Storm for their top five active scorers. Cash .214 while last year she was .407. Bird at .325 last year was .399. Little at .200, last year .348. Wright .323, last year .411. Finally Willingham at .167, last year .452. There isn't a single player amongst their top five scorers even close to last year's numbers, and in spite of that, the Storm are 5-3. They are 5-3 because they defend better than any team in the WNBA. You have to go all the way back to the 2007 season to find a WNBA team allowing less than 70 points per game, and the Storm is allowing 68.8 ppg. The Fever are playing well, winning four straight, but this is a team that has struggled vs. the West at 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Seattle is 23-13 UNDER since last season when facing up-tempo teams like Indiana (teams average 62+ shots per game). They are also 21-9 UNDER over that span vs. teams that score 77+ per game. Indiana has a history of coming back down to earth after a couple of hot shooting games. They are 26-12 UNDER after back-to-back games shooting 45% or better. The Storm are winning despite the 3-point shooting anomaly, and I expect a few more to start dropping while their defense smothers the Fever. Play on Seattle and the UNDER.

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