2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 12, 2008
Seattle at Green Bay
Saturday 01/12 04:30 PM Eastern
4 units on Green Bay -400 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1) RESULT: win
This is an excellent opportunity, and presents one of the best values on the board this weekend. Since the current NFL playoff format went into effect in 1994, any visiting team in this round that has 10 or less regular season wins is just 2-30 against the moneyline! That is 15 to 1 odds and equates to a moneyline of -2400. The actual moneyline for this game (-400) equates to an expected win rate of 79%. So, we have a 96% expected payoff for the "cost" of an 79% winner. Another way to look at this is to say that we are laying -400 on something that has a fair price of -2400.