San Francisco at Los Angeles

In this one we get a pitcher who is 5-0 at home with a 1.67 ERA as an underdog. He's given up a total of 7 earned runs and five walks in 38 innings pitched at home. Why do we get him as a dog? Because he's facing Jason Schmidt. Schmidt is solid but he's on the road where he is just 2-4 with a 3.48 ERA this season. The wrong team is favored here. The Dodgers are 31-21 the last three seasons as a home underdog. And, over the past two seasons, SChmidt is just 6-14 in the second half of the season vs. teams that score 4.8+ runs per game (LA scores 5.4 per game overall and 6.1 per game at home). The Dodgers are pounding the ball right now having scored 6.6 per game over their last seven games. These teams are off a high scoring affair with San Fran coming out on top 11-7. How will LA respond to that? Home teams that score 5.0+ runs/game facing a good starting pitcher (ERA under 3.70), after allowing 8 runs or more are 40-15 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. Home dog here.