2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 11, 2012
San Diego at Tampa Bay
Sunday 11/11 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on San Diego +3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) RESULT: loss
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been on a roll offensively, having scored 144 points over their last four games or 36 points per game. Many will look at that and have them in mind when they make their selections this week, but I won't be one of them. While the numbers look impressive, history says it is an illusion and a bigger negative than a positive coming into this game. The Bucs are still at just 4-4 and a .500 team, and teams that are .500 or less that scored 130 or more points in their last four games are just 12-17-2 ATS in their next game. That includes 3-13-1 ATS as a favorite. The reality is that average teams don't keep up that kind of production forever. The Chargers are also 4-4 on the year. But, over their last 11 road games, they have actually out-scored their opponents by ten points. The Chargers should have an open season against the Bucs' secondary, which is allowing over eight yards per pass attempt. Phillip Rivers is good enough to exploit that weakness. The Chargers never seem to play well as a favorite, but Phillip Rivers is 15-10 ATS in his career as an underdog. And, this is Norv Turner time (he's 27-16 ATS at San Diego in the second half of the season). Take the Chargers here.