2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 10, 2012


San Diego at Oakland

Monday 09/10 10:15 PM Eastern

1 unit on San Diego +1 (-110) (risk 1 to win 0.9)  RESULT: win

The Dennis Allen era begins in Oakland tonight as the Raiders host the San Diego Chargers. The Raiders have not been in the playoffs since 2002, nor have they completed the season with a winning record since their last appearance. The Chargers have now missed the playoffs the last two seasons after dominating the AFC West, winning it the four previous years. One aspect has not changed: Chargers domination over the Raiders. The Bolts beat the Raiders in the season finale last year to keep Oakland from that ellusive playoff berth. The Chargers have now beaten Oakland in 14 of the last 17 meetings and have won seven of eight here in Oakland. They have also covered the spread in 15 of the last 20 played here. The Chargers offense will remain potent as long as Phillip Rivers is directing it. Rivers had an off year in 2011. Despite throwing for over 4,000 yards for the 4th consecutive year he was intercepted 20 times, a career high. Based on his long track record, I would expect that number to decline this year. The Chargers have done a great job in division play under Rivers, where they have posted a 26-10 record since 2006. Meanwhile, the Raiders were outscored 18.8 to 25.7 last season in division games. In their last 58 home divisional games, Oakland is just 20-38 ATS. The Oakland defense has to be a concern against an offensive team like San Diego. The Raiders allowed 20 points or more in 13 of their 16 games a year ago, and they have not been able to establish a home-field advantage. Oakland has really struggled in expected close games, going just 35-65 ATS in their last 100 games with a line in the +3 to -3 range. The Chargers have scored 23 or more points here in each of the last 11 games, and I don't see anything different sabout this oakland defense thast is going to change that. Teams that score more than 23 points in an NFL game win 76% of the time. The oddsmakers have pegged these teams nearly equal by setting this line where they have. Sure, the Chargers had an off year last season and Oakland is on the rise. But equal? I haven't seen that yet. Play on San Diego.


2012-13 Recent Results

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