2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 04, 2007

04

San Diego at Minnesota

Sunday 11/04 01:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Minnesota +7  RESULT: win

Getting 7 points at home is very rare in the NFL. Getting 7 from a 4-3 team is even more rare. Is Minnesota really that bad? Is San Diego that good? We don't think so. The Vikings have had some very good seasons over the years, as well as some dreadful ones. But it's been over 11 years since they were instilled as a 7 point home underdog. It last happened vs. Green Bay on September 22nd, 1996. They won that game by 8 points. The Chargers all of a sudden have everyone's attention, as they appear to now be the same team they were last year after a rough start. The clincher was their 35-10 blowout win over Houston last week. We aren't yet sold on this team being completely back. That 25-point win margin over the Texans was somewhat misleading as they scored twice on defense and benefitted from a 5-0 turnover margin. The San Diego offense, even with those five extra possessions, scored just three times all game. They managed just 28 against Oakland at home and it was all Tomlinson. When San Diego struggled to start the year, what was the problem? Tomlinson couldn't get going and Rivers can't do it alone. The Vikings can do one thing good, and that is stop the run. The Vikes allow a league low 2.91 yards per carry and the Chargers have proven to struggle when Tomlinson finds the going tough. San Diego had the fourth rated offense last season, but has now slipped below the middle of the pack to 19th. The Vikings are a very tough out when they are given a FG or more at home, as they are 15-2 ATS since 1988 getting 3+. There have only been four times in history the oddsmakers have given them this many at home, and they won three of the four. The Chargers may have a difficult time staying focused for this one, as they have Indianapolis on deck, followed by Jacksonville, Baltimore, Tennessee, KC (div. leader) and Detroit (5-2). Norv Turner-coached teams are just 7-23 ATS when facing a bad team (40% or less SU). We like the Vikes for the cover, with a small chance to spring the outright upset.


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