2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 30, 2012
San Diego at Kansas City
Sunday 09/30 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on San Diego -1 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8) RESULT: win
The Kansas City Chiefs were down 24-6 to the Saints last week, but rallied back for a stunning 27-24 overtime win to leave the Saints at 0-3. That was a good spot for the Chiefs and good for a win for us last week. A victory over the Saints sounds good, but the reality this season is, it's not a real quality win. The 27 points the Chiefs hung on New Orleans was the fewest the Saints have allowed all season. The bigger issue here is the Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 99 points through three games. The Chiefs have recorded just five sacks on the season, and have allowed opponents to convert 42.9% on third down. The San Diego offense has a lot of weapons, and if you give Philip Rivers time he is going to pick you apart. The San Diego defense ranks No. 8 in the league in yards allowed and is allowing just 17 points per game, which ranks No. 6. Matt Cassell has thrown more interceptions than TDs, and that is not a good recipe vs. San Diego. The Chargers have run the table going 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a losing team, and have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC foes. Norv Turner has his issues, but during his time in San Diego, the Chargers are 23-12 ATS vs. teams that allow 61%+ pass completions. Play on San Diego.