2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 18, 2012
San Diego at Denver
Sunday 11/18 04:25 PM Eastern
3 units on San Diego +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) RESULT: win
This one seems obvious with Denver on a 4-0 run, outscoring every other team in the league outside of New England, and San Diego having lost four of five. The Broncos have gotten everything out of Peyton Manning that they had hoped to, and more. Manning is having perhaps his best season ever through nine games with the Broncos at 6-3. The three losses were all to top-level teams in Atlanta, Houston, and New England. The Denver offense has been full speed ahead, scoring 31 or more points in each of their last four games. All those numbers do is put them in rarified air to gamblers, especially the way they have been covering. But history shows all good things must come to an end. The Broncos are getting ripe for a loss, or least some ATS losses. There have only been 29 teams since 1989 that have scored 31 or more points in their last four games, and covered the last three. Those teams looked like gold to the betting public, but are in reality fool’s gold, going 9-20 ATS in their next game out. The oddsmakers pad the line, and the points have made the difference in 12 of those 29 games! Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are 22-12 ATS vs. good passing teams (those with 61%+ completions). If you narrow that down to late season play (second half of the season), that figure goes to an amazing 17-2 ATS! San Diego has underperformed all season, but now at 4-5 a loss would be devastating, so expect their "A" game here. And, judging by history, that will be enough to get the money. This is the highest spread Denver has faced all season. Hold your nose and play on San Diego.