2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 28, 2012
San Diego at Cleveland
Sunday 10/28 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on San Diego -2.5 (-120) (risk 2 to win 1.7) RESULT: loss
The Browns are a mess, and don't seem to be able to draft their way out of it. They are once again off to a bad start at 1-6 with little hope in site. Going back to last year, the Browns are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Ouch. This is a franchise that has not won more than five games since 2007, and it doesn't look like that will change this season. The Browns’ offense has scored 17 points or less in 17 of their last 21 games. At the same time they have allowed 17 or more points in 20 of their last 26. That really puts the odds in favorable fashion for the Chargers posted as a small field goal favorite here. One reason this line is so low is that the betting public just doesn't trust the Chargers, especially after last week's debacle on national television. But, the Bolts have scored 20 or more in 27 of their last 32 games. They have also covered five straight after a double-digit home loss, and are now 7-1 ATS vs. AFC opponents in their last eight. The Browns just don't have the talent to add any value to playing at home where they have covered just 4 of their last 15 games. Norv Turner has his issues, but he thrives vs. teams with poor passing defenses. As the head man at San Diego, he is 24-14 ATS vs. teams that allow 61%+ through the air (the Browns allow 62.5% completions). Buy low on San Diego here vs. a really bad team. Buy the half-point off of -3 to make it -2.5.