San Antonio at Washington

There's been an overreaction in the line in this one thanks to Washington's double-digit road victory over San Antonio on Friday. This line opened at 6 points and has moved all the way to 7.5. But, adjustments happen in sports, and overconfidence can also creep in. I expect the Silver Stars to keep this one close. San Antonio has been their best against-the-spread on the road where they are .500. Over the past three seasons, they own a 28-16 ATS mark on the road. Washington has been their worst ATS at home. When facing up-tempo teams like the Mystics the past two seasons (teams averaging 62+ shots per game), San Antonio is 13-5 ATS. Over the past three seasons, the Stars are 16-3 ATS on the road vs. teams that allow 77+ per game. Finally, the Stars are 15-3 ATS the past three seasons when revenging a home loss. Take the points on San Antonio. Also take the UNDER. The home team usually dictates the pace and Washington's home games this season have averaged 148.1 points per game - over 6 points lower than this total. On the season, the Mystics are 4-2 to the UNDER in this building. Dating back to last season, they are also 8-1 UNDER following back-to-back OVERs. Over the past three seasons, Washington is 13-4 UNDER after scoring 70+ in two straight games including a perfect 6-0 UNDER after putting up 75+ in back-to-back games. Take the Silver Stars and the UNDER here.