San Antonio at Miami

San Antonio was scorching hot in game three, as they cruised to an easy win. Things are likely to be quite different tonight. The Heat have an in-depth understanding of what wins playoffs games, and that is defense. No team over the last 14 Heat playoffs losses have topped the 100-point mark against them, and there is a huge difference when they are off a loss vs. off a win in this time period. The Heat allow 46.4% shooting after a win, but just 43.5% after a loss, so the focus coming out of the gate will be on the defensive end, which has been their playoffs protocol after a loss. The Spurs are a savvy veteran team with a very good coach, and they know that they are going to have to come out and match the defensive intensity of the Heat early. This game should be played strong on the defensive end early - before a free-throw contest turns a low-scoring game into a higher scoring game late. Respect the early defense and play the first half UNDER the total.