San Antonio at Miami

After blowing a 7-point lead in the heat on the road in game one, the Miami Heat rose to the challenge and came away with a hard-fought win in game two. They now have a best-of-five series tied, with three of the five remaining games to be played in Miami. The significance of that is the fact that the Heat are 11-0 straight-up in their last 11 home playoffs games. The Heat have been close to invincible at home in the LeBron James era, as they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 at home as a favorite of less than double-digits, winning by an average of just shy of 10 points per game. San Antonio has flourished at home in the playoffs this season, but it has been because of their ability to knock down 3s at an alarming rate. The Spurs have shot 45.8% from beyond the arc at home, but a meager and sub-par 32.6% on the road. In the Tim Duncan era, the Spurs are 33-11 ATS at home when they connect on 40%+ from deep, but are just 22-31-1 ATS on the road when they connect on less than 40%. The interest here is that the Heat have allowed 8 of 34 opponents in the James era to shoot 40% or better from deep at home, and 20-34 have shot 35% or less. The bigger factor is that just one team in round four has shot 40% or better in Miami over the period. The Heat is 23-3 SU overall at home in the LeBron era in the playoffs, holding opponents under 40% from deep, and are also 18-8 ATS. San Antonio has not shot better than 40% from beyond the arc on the road in the last two playoffs years, which will be the most decisive factor in tonight's game. Lay the points and back the Heat.