San Antonio at Cleveland

Neither of these two teams is playing well as the season winds down. Cleveland faces the possibility of a third-straight loss for the first time this season. They have a 3.5 game lead over Boston in the East and a one game lead over the Lakers for the top spot overall. Something just isn't right with Cleveland right now as evidenced by a loss to the worst team in the East, Washington, on Thursday and a 116-87 beat down at the hands of the Magic on Friday. Their league-best defense has been awful the past two games. They are 36-1 here at home and after those bad losses, the conventional wisdom is that they will lay a beat down on the Spurs. I think San Antonio keeps it close. They are also is motivated to step up its play. They won last game but prior to that, suffered back-to-back losses with one coming against lowly Oklahoma City. In addition, the Spurs are playing with revenge as they lost to Cleveland at home by 11 points back in February. This is a veteren team that knows this game is a statement-maker and confidence builder. A big loss here after their recent performance would really hurt the Spurs' confidence. As such, I think they bring their A game. Is their A game good enough to hang with the Cavs at Quicken? Yes! San Antonio is 23-14 on the road this season (21-15 ATS). They can hit from the outside and those kinds of teams can give the Cavs trouble. The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when revenging a same-season loss. I like the Spurs to stay within this number. I also like the UNDER. Both of these teams have excellent defenses that tend to step up when facing another great team. The Spurs are 55-36 UNDER the past two seasons when facing a winning opponent. They are also 48-30 UNDER to a total in the 180s over that span (including 16-5 UNDER between 180 and 185!). Cleveland is 74-52 UNDER vs. winning teams the past three seasons and 55-33 UNDER overall in home games the past two seasons. Take the Spurs and the UNDER.