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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 21, 2007


Pittsburgh at Denver

Sunday 10/21 08:15 PM Eastern

3 units on Denver +5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

It's been a rough year for the Broncos. They have fallen hard and quick. But, those are the kind of teams on which you can usually find value in the NFL. Those of you who have been with us for a while know we usually have a few "gut wrenching" plays per year in the NFL - games in which your gut tells you it's a terrible pick. This is one of those. The good news is, these picks usually come through. You have to turn the clock back to 1992 to find the last time the Broncos were a home dog of more than a field goal. That game matched them with the eventual Superbowl winning Dallas Cowboys. The Boys came in with a good 10-2 record, the #1 rushing defense, and 6th rated pass defense, while the Broncos were near the bottom of the heap in stopping the run, and producing yards from the run. The result was a Denver ATS win. The Broncos have been home dogs just nine times since 1985, posting a 6-1-2 ATS mark. A lot has gone wrong for this team, culminated by a 41-3 smackdown by the Chargers at home, their worst home loss in over 40 years. That embarassing loss, an extra week to stew and prepare and a virtual must-win situation, at night in primetime, spells major motivation for the Broncos. Champ Bailey decreed that the Broncos will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week. The bigger question is, will it be good enough to stay within a field goal of the powerful Steelers? The answer is yes! The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Broncos as it gives them a chance to plug some holes, and at the same time, make an attitude adjustment as Bailey described. The bye was timely for the Steelers in terms of getting healthy, but certainly came at the wrong time, in terms of a momentum buster. Statistically if you try to measure this game, the Steelers would be the only way to go, but statistics aren't what covers NFL pointspreads, as you see week in and week out. If that were the case, then this would be easy, and all the statistical mismatches would fall into the win column for the statistically advantaged. That just doesn't happen! The Broncos are 13-3 off a bye and a perfect 9-0 ATS if they are coming off a loss and 9-2 ATS at home. It is testament to what coach Mike Shanahan can do when given ample time to prepare for a team. The Broncos are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 at home vs. a defense that allows 14 or less points per game. Broncos bark as a home dog. 



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