Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Pittsburgh Pirates appear to be an improved team, but the reality is I believe they have played over their heads so far.  I expect them to regress back to the awful road team they have been over the years, thus presenting value on the otherside. The Pirates have a lot working against them in this one, including their 44-95 mark on the road in their last 139 vs. a righthander, and 20-68 on the road vs. a winning team. They have been an even worse 4-18 in Morton's last 22 road starts. The Reds look to continue perfection at home vs. a righthander where they have taken seven straight and own a 17-8 mark behind Arroyo when he faces a losing team. Cincinnati is the play in this one.