Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Cincinnati is home with a below average offense, #19 in baseball in runs scored, #29 in on base percentage. They face a Pittsburgh squad playing its fifth straight road game, one that is 8-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning home record. The Pirates go with Juan Nicasio (3-3, 3.16 ERA), with 32 Ks in 31 innings and opponents hitting .239 off him. Nicasio topped the Reds 4-1 on April 29 when he scattered three hits and struck out eight over seven scoreless innings. The Cincinnati Reds finally got a strong performance from their bullpen and ended up with a 3-2 win over the Pirates on Monday, and then received an unscheduled extra day of rest for the overworked relief corps when yesterday's game was rained out. Starter Alfredo Simon has turned things around, off a strong start against the Brewers, and the last three-plus years he is 18-13 at home with a 3.95 ERA. All of which makes this total too high. Play Pittsburgh/Cincinnati UNDER the total.