Phoenix at Indiana

The Phoenix Mercury find themselves down 2-1 in this series, and they are trying to prove that you can win playoff games with offense, and that hasn't worked for them so far. They have had their hands full in this series as they have won just once and it took OT at home. It is very apparent that if you hold this Phoenix team down in scoring, you flat-out beat them. The Mercury is just 1-10 straight up on the season when they score 85 points or less, but on the other hand, if you allow Phoenix to get to 95 they are 18-1, so a very fine threshold for this team and their opponents. You have to like the Fever here, who have held the Mercury to 85 or less in two of the three games, and on the season in 19 home games, the Fever have allowed over 85 just twice, or 10.5% of the time. The Fever had a 17-2 run during the regular season and coasted down the stretch. They have become that team again that knows how to win. They have the talent and defensive intensity to get it done. I like Indiana in this one.