Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

The World Series opens in Tampa tonight as the Rays host the Phillies. Cole Hamels goes for the Phillies and Scott Kazmir gets the call for the Rays. Hamels has had a good season, and has been solid of late, but his regular season road numbers vs winning teams shows something different. He has a 4.58 ERA on the road vs. top teams during the regular season. Scott Kazmir has pitched well at home with the Rays going 12-2, but his problem is too many pitches and he has exited before completing six innings more times than not. The Rays pen has been guilty of an additional 1.95 runs per game after his departure. The last 11 times Kazmir has taken the ball for the Rays an average of 12.36 runs have been scored! The last 11 times Kazmir has taken the mound, a bettor would be 11-0 playing the OVER to a total of 7.5. While both of these guys are very ogod, there's just too much here saying this one is set too low, and I'll play the OVER 7.5 which is actually an underdog line, showing great value.