Philadelphia at Atlanta

Atlanta has been completely lost on the road, but they enter this one with the same home record (41-36) as the Phillies’ road mark. Cole Hammels has pitched well this season, but in his last six road starts the Phillies have managed just two wins. Consider those two wins were over the worst two teams in the NL in Washington and San Diego - he hasn't beaten a decent team on the road since before the All-Star break. Jo Jo Reyes has not pitched well this season, but his last home start he allowed just one run and four hits in six innings, and may have found something to build on. The oddsmakers like to pile on the chalk with teams in a pennant race, turning the value the other way, so I'll back the Braves here.