img NBA

Orlando at Los Angeles

June 4, 2009
img9:05 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
3 units on Orlando PICK (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)
Result:
LOSS

The Magic did the unthinkable in beating the Cavs, the top team in the league all season and nearly unbeatable at home, in six games. In that series the Magic had many mismatch advantages and to their credit, they took advantage of it. We called a series win for Orlando (and banked at +250 on that) after game one after seeing the mis-matches and noting that the Magic have been atop my NBA power rankings for a while now. While they won't have the mismatches in this series, they have the skillset and confidence to stay close with LA in game one. The Lakers play best when their backs are against the wall. When the pressure is off, they tend to leave their "A" game in the locker room. They lost to Houston at home in game one of the second round and followed that up with an ATS loss to Denver in game one at home (a game they really should have lost straight-up). The Lakers put together back-to-back excellent games vs. Denver to close them out but prior to that, this team had really underperformed in the playoffs. Can they win this game by more than three baskets? I don't think they do. While they don't have the matchup advantages they did vs. Cleveland, this Magic team still won both games vs. the Lakers twice in the regular season so we know they are not, at a minimum, at a big matchup disadvantage. Orlando is now 31-18 ATS this season vs. winning teams. That includes a 25-10 ATS mark vs. the elite teams that outscore opponents by 3+ points per game. They are also 16-4 ATS on the road this season vs. teams that average 103+ points per game. They are 14-6 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like the Lakers (those averaging 83+ shots per game) and 18-7 ATS as as an underdog. Evidence of the Laker's propensity to underperform when the pressure is off? They are just 7-18 ATS this season at home after having won three of their last four games. Orlando should keep this one close enough to cover. I also like the UNDER in this game. This will be the first time an NBA Championship series has seen a total of 200 or higher since 1995! That's 14 years folks. It certainly speaks of value on the UNDER, especially when you consider that game one of the Finals has gone UNDER the total in five consecutive years (as teams shake off a little rust and battle nerves). Magic playoff games have averaged 192 points per game (3 points under their regular season average). Lakers playoff games have averaged 199 points per game (six points under their regular season average). So we have 192 and 199 and this total is set at 206? The Lakers have now gone 27-9 UNDER in their last 36 games as a favorite while the Magic enter this one having gone UNDER to the tune of 52-24 in their last 76 games after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Orlando is 30-15 UNDER this season vs. teams that average triple digits including 11-3 UNDER vs. teams that average 103+ points per game! They are also 10-1 UNDER this season after scoring 100+ points in three straight games. Orlando plus the points and the UNDER here.

FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Orlando Magic
24
19
15
17
75
Los Angeles Lakers img
22
31
29
18
100
odds odds
 
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