Ohio State at Penn State

Another big Big Ten showdown in Happy Valley this week as the Buckeyes invade looking to take a hold on the Big Ten lead. One problem here - I think Ohio State is a bit overrated while Penn State is starting to remind us of old. A night game in Happy Valley usually spells trouble for the visitors as the crowd will be raucous. Home teams at +3 to -3 with a good defense (allowing 315 or less yards/game), after outgaining their last opponent by 175+ yards are 30-6 (83%) over the last 10 seasons. Also, home teams with an excellent rushing defense allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 65-29 (69%) ATS since 1992. Ohio State had last week off, while the Lions were disposing of Minnesota and its vaunted rushing attack. While JoPa's defense is clicking, the big difference in this year's Penn State team is their offense. They look like the Penn State offenses of old, and will shock the Buckeyes on their home field here. Two stars on the Lions.