2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 25, 2012
Oakland at Cincinnati
Sunday 11/25 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Oakland PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
The Cincinnati Bengals had a big win two games back when they manhandled the New York Giants 31-13 at home. They went on to a convincing win vs. Kansas City last week 28-6. They are now laying near double-digits to Oakland, and I'm not buying it. What would this line have been just a few short weeks ago when the Bengals lost to Denver for their fourth straight loss? Short term is what the oddsmakers tend to focus on because gamblers neglect to look at the big picture. That bigger picture says the Bengals are 5-5 and a pedestrian middle of the road NFL team. Oakland surely has had its struggles, but so has Andy Dalton with his 11 INTs on the season. The Raiders have allowed 135 points over their last three games, which is a ridiculous 45 points per game, so no one wants any part of them, further adding to this line. That in and of itself is meaningless because teams that allow an average of 40 ppg over their last three games are 7-7-2 ATS long term. The Raiders are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 following a spread loss. Meanwhile, in the Marvin Lewis era, the Bengals are just 31-45 ATS at home including 13-26 ATS as a favorite! Take Oakland with the points here.