2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
August 25, 2007
New York at New York
Saturday 08/25 12:00 AM Eastern
3 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
This is an interesting game featuring two teams that not only compete in the same market, but play at home on the same field. They have met in week 3 of the preseason now for over a decade, and some things stand-out through all the history. Coaches come and go, but regardless of who is pacing the sidelines, this game has never been used for "showing up" the opposing cross-city team. Nor is it a life and death match. It is invariably played close to the vest and conservatively. The last 11 years have seen the game decided by one score or less nine times. Jets head coach Eric Mangini and Giants coach Tom Coughlin squared off for the first time last year and the game was true to historical form - a highly conservative match. That game featured 58 rushing attempts and just 28 first downs. The total yardage was limited to just 473. Needless to say, this was a game played not necessarily to win, but rather to get out healthy and in-tact, and move on. The last six games between these two teams in the preseason have played UNDER, with an average of 28 total points scored. Eight of the last 10 have gone UNDER. The average rushing attempts the last three years has been 61 per game, while the average yards gained by both teams has averaged 453. Over that span, they've averaged just 27 total first downs per game. The Giants lost four players to injury last game in the exhibition season, so they aren't likely to go crazy here with starters and risk more injuries. Another interesting wrinkle is that these teams play each other this year in the regular season. Do you think they are going to show anything here in a meangingless game that might tip their competitor to tendencies in the regular season game? The last three times these teams met in the preseason and regular season, the pre-season game was even more conservative than normal. Those three games totaled 74 points (less than 25 per game), with no game totaling as many as 30 points! This game gets shortened from both sides with conservative game plans and play, going UNDER the total.