2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 13, 2008
New York Giants at Dallas
Sunday 01/13 04:30 PM Eastern
4 units on Dallas -7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) RESULT: loss
The Giants have played well the last two weeks in a close loss (but moral victory) to New England and a nice playoff opener on the road in Tampa. The defense has played well on the season as they rank #8 overall. This is where statistics do not tell the whole story! The Giants have lived playing mediocre offenses, but have also had to face some of the top offenses, and they have failed miserably. The Giants allowed 45 points to this very third ranked Dallas offense, giving up four TD passes. They allowed 31 in a rematch and four more TD passes. They allowed 38 points to #1 New England and 35 to #2 Green Bay. In those four games, they gave up 13 TD passes and 149 points, or 37.3 ppg. That ranks dead last in the NFC, and the yards allowed in these four games would rank 31st! So instead of a solid #8 defense, we see a bad defense vs. great offenses. What makes matters worse is three of these games were played at home. Dallas has not played well after beating Green Bay, and going to 11-1 on the season, nor have they had to look good because that game pretty much put them in this #1 seed position for this game. The Giants led the league with 52 sacks on the season, and it is the reason they were able to cripple the mediocre offenses. It is also the reason they can't stop the good offenses. They recorded just five sacks in the four games mentioned above, or about 1 per game. That means in the other 12 games, they averaged four per game! The Giants secondary is their weakness, and it is why they can't stop the top offenses. If they can't get pressure, they get exposed. Tony Romo has a bitter memory of botching a hold on an X-tra point last year and he has been waiting for this opportunity since then. He already has eight TD passes against the Giants, and he will shred that secondary again. NFC #1 seeds are 15-4 ATS the last 19 years, and while the public has bought into the Giants in a big way, we are not fooled. They can beat the Tampa Bay's of the league but against the league elite, they fold.