New York at Washington

Washington is definitely the better team and playing at home. But, the Mystics allow 78 points per game (nearly 84 per game over their last five), and that's a bad defense to back when giving points. New York's defense is much better and that will give them a chance to keep this game close. When playing on the road against a bad defense (team that allows 73+ ppg), the Liberty are 12-4 ATS the past two seasons. New York is coming off a 77-88 loss to Chicago and the Liberty are a perfect 9-2 ATS the past two seasons when coming off a double-digit loss. Washington is 9-20 ATS at home the past two seasons including 2-9 ATS after a game in which they were favored. The Mystics are also just 5-15 ATS the past two seasons coming off a win. I like New York here.