New York at Tennessee

It has been a brutal season for the Tennessee Titans. They have lost their last three games by a total of 72 points, and the last was by 29 at home to the Giants - a team that had lost seven straight times coming into the game. They lost QB Zack Mettenberger for the season, but the reality is that he wasn't having a lot of success moving the team when he was healthy. Jake Locker will be back at QB against the Jets. It is all bad news for Tennessee, but that is when the contrarian minded NFL rears its ugly head the highest. The Titans look like the improbable choice here, but teams off a loss of more than 28 points actually cover 56.6% of all games in the NFL. There have been more than 300 of them over the last couple of decades, a more than ample supply to offer credibility to this situation. The Jets have been no bargain themselves this season, winning just one time in their last 11 games. The once proud Jets' defense has allowed 24 points or more in 10 of their last 12 games, so don't be surprised if Locker has a big day. The Jets' pass defense has been defining for them lately as they are 0-5 ATS after allowing better than 250 yards in the air in their previous game. Tennessee's weakness is their pass defense, but the Jets aren't likely to take advantage of it with their bad QB play and Rex Ryan (who likes to run) leading the team. Under Ryan, New York is just 10-21 ATS vs. poor pass defenses (those allowing 235+ yards per game). The Titans have come back to a 7-2-1 ATS mark in their last 10 after a brutal offensive game of less than 250 yards. You sure aren't gonna get rich laying points with this New York team. Take the Titans.