This pick was released to clients on August 13, 2012 at 3:01PM ET.
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New York at San Francisco

January 5, 2003
img4:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on New York +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)
Result:
WIN

New York is riding a four-game winning streak and brings a lot of confidence into the playoffs while San Francisco has to be questioning how far they will go this year. New York’s win over arguably the league’s best team in Philadelphia last week did a lot for their confidence. Meanwhile, the 49ers went 3-4 in their last seven games and never really seemed to be able to get on-track this year.

There are numerous symptoms of problems with San Francisco. The Niners allowed more points per game this season (21.9) than any other playoff team. Their record against winning teams this year: a dismal 2-4. And, they are allowing opponents to convert 47% of the time on third downs!

San Francisco’s struggling defense will have problems against a New York offense that is clicking since head coach Jim Fassel took over play calling duties. On pass plays, New York has three excellent threats in Amani Toomer, Tiki Barber, and potential rookie of the year Jeremy Shockey. In addition to the pass threat, Barber put up nearly 1,400 yards on the ground this year (including over 200 against the league’s best defense last week).

The 49ers are only favored by 3.5 in this game because they are “The 49ers.” But make no mistake about it… This is not the same great playoff team that has featured Montana, Rice, Young, and Lott. This team has one (maybe two) stars surrounded by a bunch of mediocre talent.

New York is justifiably confident they can contain San Francisco’s biggest threat – Terrell Owens. Their aggressive cornerback play limited him to just four receptions in their earlier meeting this year.

I am nervous about New York’s difficulty in the red zone and their tendency to turn the ball over. Both Barber and QB Kerry Collins are prone to fumbling (Barber coughed it up four times last week). New York averaged -.1 turnovers per game while San Francisco was +.6 on the season. Turnovers will be key in this game.

In the end, the stats favor New York. Despite San Francisco averaging more points (22.9) than the Giants (20) over the course of the season, the G-men are averaging nearly 27 points per game since Fassel took over the offense. On defense, the Giants only give up 17.4 per game versus the playoff-team high 21.9 mentioned early allowed by the 49ers. New York averages an excellent 7.5 yards per pass attempt versus only 6.3 for San Francisco. The Giants are better at limiting big plays while San Francisco is better at making them. San Francisco does have a better ground game but I don’t think it will be enough against the Giants.

Take the Giants and the points.

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