New York at Baltimore

In the last six starts made by James Paxton (4.61 ERA), the Yankees are 1-5. The problem is that he struggles on the road with a 5.83 ERA as batters hit .328 off him. His ERA is over four in two starts against Baltimore this season. The Orioles are 6-1 against a left-handed starter, plus 6-1 when facing a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Baltimore has its best pitcher going in John Means (8-6, 3.12 ERA), who is 6-2 with a 2.56 ERA at home this season. With the Orioles 9-2 when umpire Angel Hernandez is behind home plate, back the home dog. Take Baltimore.