New York at Atlanta

The Braves need this one to avoid the series sweep to the Mets. NY goes with Tom Glavine who is 11-4 overall with a 3.69 ERA. But, in his last two starts he's dropped to 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA. In 14 starts against his former team, he's 3-9 with a 5.32 ERA. Chuck James goes for the Bravos and he's 4-1. Atlanta is 28-16 over the past decade as a home dog of +100 to +125 and they are 31-10 off a loss of 8+ runs over that same span. Home teams that score 5.0+ runs/game facing a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) are 41-17 (71%) over the last 5 seasons when coming off a big loss by 8+ runs. I expect the Braves to bounce back from last game's embarrassment here and get the needed win.